Keepin' It Real 

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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The REIT ETFs (VNQ and IYR) ended the day higher by nearly 1%, led by strength in the data center and single family rental sectors. Homebuilder ETFs (XHB and ITB) finished flat, while homebuilding products and materials companies ended the day higher. The Hoya Capital Housing Index finished higher by roughly 0.5%.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day down roughly 1% as energy prices dipped. Interest rates remained steady across the yield curve with the 10-Year yield ended lower by 1 basis point. Earnings season ramps up this week with results from Equity Lifestyle, Boston Properties, Equity Residential, AO Smith, Eagle Materials, and Pulte Group all released over the next two days.



  • Alex Pettee, CFA


Read the full report on Seeking Alpha!

  • Earnings season kicks off this week in the real estate sector. More than 100 REITs, 10 homebuilders, and 50 housing-related companies will report fourth-quarter earnings over the next six weeks.

  • Real estate equities have led the broader equity over the last quarter amid the retreat in interest rates and inflation expectations. The “Rates Down, REITs Up” mantra continued throughout 2018.

  • For REITs, investors will be hoping that the positive momentum of 2018 continued in 4Q18. A trend of the past two years, 2019 guidance is likely to be very conservative.

  • After the dismal end to 2018 for single family housing data, homebuilders earnings will be a key focus of not just real estate investors, but of all global market participants.

  • Given the sensitivity of single family ownership demand to mortgage rates, and the wide range of expectations on rates, earnings commentary and guidance will likely be all across the board.


  • Alex Pettee, CFA


Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

  • Amid a volatile backdrop of political and trade uncertainty, US markets have seemingly calmed over the last several weeks. The S&P 500 barely missed notching a fifth consecutive positive week

  • The longest US government shutdown in history came to a temporary halt on Friday as the negotiations continue. The S&P 500 rose more than 10% during the 35-day shutdown.

  • REIT earnings season got off to a solid start this week. Industrial REIT Prologis hasn’t seen “any softness” in demand for their distribution centers. REITs rallied for the third week.

  • The second and third largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton and NVR, both reported in line results. Order growth slowed considerably in late 2018, but homebuilders have managed to climb 8% this year.

  • Existing home sales data was below expectations this week as sales slowed in December to the weakest rate since 2015. Single family markets are increasingly sensitive to mortgage rates.


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