Keepin' It Real 

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

1/1
Housing100logo.png
ETF express.png

US equity markets took another leg lower this week despite otherwise solid economic data in the US. Economic data from Asia and Europe signal a clear slowdown in global growth. Real estate equities led the decline even as mortgage rates ticked to a three month low. Giving back recent outperformance, REITs dipped by 2% while Homebuilders declined more than 3%.


Retail sales topped estimates in November as the brick and mortar resurgence continues. Retail sales are on pace to grow 5% in 2018, the best year since 2011. Inflation expectations decreased to the lowest level since the passage of tax reform last December. Plunging oil prices and the strong US Dollar have quickly erased the inflationary pressure.

With easing inflation expectations, slowing global growth, and a sputtering housing market, all eyes are on the Fed’s pivotal meeting next week.


To read the full article, visit Seeking Alpha!


  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Industrial REITs remain the standouts of the REIT sector, but performance in 2018 has been weighed down by continued fears of the trade war and its impact on supply chains. The underlying impact of trade concerns on industrial fundamentals, however, has been negligible so far. Industrial REITs reported strong third quarter results that generally topped expectations.


Demand growth is set to outpace supply yet again in 2018. The “need for speed” among consumers and businesses has resulted in intense competition for well-located logistics distribution centers. Prologis painted an optimistic outlook for 2019, particularly in their European markets. With no vacancy and a full development pipeline, however, same-store NOI growth is likely peaking in the US. Valuations remain elevated as the sector is priced for a peaceful trade resolution. Lingering trade uncertainty would be expected to eventually weaken tenant leasing demand.

Click to view full article on Seeking Alpha!


  • Alex Pettee, CFA

On a wild week, the S&P 500 dipped more than 4%, erasing its 2018 gains amid trade tensions and concern that the US economy may be losing steam into year-end. For the first time all year, REITs are outperforming the S&P 500 as the 10-year yield dipped to levels last seen in early September. Mortgage rates are poised to follow.


Job growth fell short of expectations in November, but most labor market metrics continue to show solid strength. We continue to believe that there is significant labor market slack outstanding. As the yield curve flirts with inversion, the market may be forcing the Fed’s hand. A dovish Fed would be likely good news for yield-sensitive REITs and Homebuilders. Construction spending fell short of expectations in October, dragged down by the weakest growth in residential spending since 2011. A resurgent public sector has made up some of the slack.

For Full Article, visit Seeking Alpha.


  • Facebook Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon
  • LinkedIn Social Icon

Hoya Capital Real Estate, LLC

Invest@HoyaCapital.com

(833) HOYA-CAP

Hoya Capital Real Estate ("Hoya Capital") is an SEC-registered investment advisory firm that provides investment management services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions, focusing on portfolio and index management of publicly traded securities in the real estate industry. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this website or commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Nothing on this site nor any published commentary by Hoya Capital is intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and should not be considered a complete discussion of all factors and risks. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. Loss of principal is possible. Investments in companies involved in the real estate and housing industries involve unique risks, as do investments in ETFs, mutual funds, and other securities. Hoya Capital has no business relationship with any company discussed/mentioned. Hoya Capital never receives compensation from any company discussed/mentioned. Hoya Capital, its affiliate, and/or its clients and/or its employees may hold positions in securities or funds discussed on this website and our published commentary. A complete list of holdings and other important disclosures and definitions are available by clicking the links below.

Privacy Policy 

 Client Relationship Summary 

Hoya Capital's ADV Part 2

Important Disclosures, Definitions, & List of Holdings 

Seeking-Alpha-Logo.png

The Easy Way To Invest In Real Estate