Keepin' It Real 

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Summary

  • U.S. equity markets were little changed Monday as investors await a jam-packed slate of economic data this week, as well as the beginning of first-quarter earnings season.

  • Following strong gains of 2.7% last week, the S&P 500 finished fractionally lower on the day while the Mid-Cap 400 and Small-Cap 600 indexes gained 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

  • Real estate equities were among the leaders today as the broad-based Equity REIT Index finished higher by 0.6% with 16-of-19 property sectors in positive territory while Mortgage REITs gained 0.6%.

  • SPG Acquisition Holdings (SPGS) - the SPAC sponsored by Simon Property (SPG) announced the separate trading of its Class A Common Stock and Warrants, commencing today.

  • Major economic data releases this week include the CPI Index inflation report on Tuesday, Retail Sales and Homebuilder Sentiment data on Thursday, and Housing Starts and Building Permits on Friday.

Real Estate Daily Recap

U.S. equity markets were little changed Monday as investors await a jam-packed slate of economic data this week, as well as the beginning of first-quarter earnings season. Following strong gains of 2.7% last week, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished fractionally lower on the day while the Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) and Small-Cap 600 (SLY) indexes gained 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Real estate equities were among the leaders today as the broad-based Equity REIT ETFs (VNQ) finished higher by 0.6% with 16-of-19 property sectors in positive territory while the Mortgage REIT ETFs (REM) finished higher by 0.6%.

As discussed in our Real Estate Weekly Outlook, trading volumes have been light in recent weeks but certainly may rebound this week ahead of the closely-watched CPI inflation report tomorrow morning. Eight of the eleven GICS equity sectors were higher on the day, led to the upside by the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Commerical Real Estate (XLRE) sectors while large-cap technology stocks lagged. Home improvement retailers, residential REITs and the broader Hoya Capital Housing Index delivered a strong day ahead of a busy slate of housing data throughout the week.

On that point, the economic calendar heats up tomorrow morning when we'll see Consumer Price Index data for March which is expected to mirror the jump seen in producer prices this past week. On Thursday, we'll see Retail Sales data for March should see a sizable boost from stimulus checks which arrived in bank accounts in the middle of last month. Also on Thursday, we'll see NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment data which is expected to remain near historically high levels. Finally, on Friday, we'll see Building Permits and Housing Starts as well as Consumer Sentiment data.

Commercial Equity REITs

SPAC Mania: SPG Acquisition Holdings (SPGS) - the SPAC sponsored by Simon Property (SPG) announced the separate trading of its Class A Common Stock and Warrants, commencing today. SPG plans to target "innovative businesses that operate in the 'Live, Work, Play, Stay, Shop' ecosystem."Last week, billboard REIT Lamar Advertising (LAMR) joining a wave of other real estate SPACs this year after it announced that it formed a subsidiary - Lamar Partnering Corporation (LPCXU), a special purpose acquisition company ("SPAC") that has filed to raise $300M in an IPO. LPC plans to search for a partner "at the intersection of the out-of-home advertising, technology, and communications sectors."

Mortgage REITs

Per our Mortgage REIT Tracker available to The REIT Forum subscribers, residential mREITs finished higher by 0.4% today after ending last week lower by 0.5%. Commercial mREITs gained 0.9% today, extending its 0.5% gains from last week. KKR Real Estate (KREF) was among the leaders today after it announced last Friday afternoon the launch of a 6.50% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock at $25.00 per share which will trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “KREF PRA.”

REIT Preferreds & Bonds

Per the REIT Preferreds & Bond Tracker available to The REIT Forum subscribers, REIT Preferred stocks finished higher by 0.03% today, on average, and outperformed their respective common stock issues by an average of 0.12%. So far in 2021, REIT Preferred stocks are higher by 6.66% on a price-return basis and the average REIT preferred currently pays a dividend yield of 6.29% and trades at a slight discount to par value.


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The REIT Forum is now the exclusive home to Hoya Capital premium research. Visit our website and join our email list for quick access to our real estate research library: HoyaCapital.com where we have links all of our real estate sector reports and daily recaps. You can also follow our real-time commentary on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Disclosure: A complete list of holdings and Real Estate and Housing Index definitions and holdings are available at HoyaCapital.com. Hoya Capital Real Estate advises an Exchange Traded Fund listed on the NYSE. Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index.

Additional Disclosure: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.

  • Alex Pettee, CFA
  • U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record highs this week amid a pullback in interest rates and inflation expectations as the global growth outlook has been tempered by ongoing COVID issues abroad.

  • Climbing to fresh record highs, the S&P 500 gained another 2.7% on the week while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged nearly 4%. Mid-Caps and small-caps, however, lagged for the fourth straight week.

  • Real estate equities were mixed amid a busy week of news flow - and one dividend cut - as the Equity REIT Index gained 0.2%. Homebuilders rallied as mortgage rates retreated.

  • Joining a wave of other real estate SPACs this year, including Simon Property and Alexandria, billboard REIT Lamar Advertising announced the formation of a $300 million special purpose acquisition vehicle.

  • Prison REIT GEO Group plunged 25% this week after its board immediately suspended the company's quarterly dividend payments and stated that it will "undertake an evaluation of GEO's structure as a REIT."

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Disclosure: A complete list of holdings and Real Estate and Housing Index definitions and holdings are available at HoyaCapital.com. Hoya Capital Real Estate advises an Exchange Traded Fund listed on the NYSE. Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index.

Additional Disclosure: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.

Updated: 6 days ago

Summary

  • U.S. equity markets finished broadly higher Friday ahead of the start of Q1 earnings season next week despite PPI inflation data this morning showing a higher-than-expected rise in producer prices.

  • Ending the week with gains of 2.7%, the S&P 500 finished higher by another 0.7% today. The Mid-Cap 400 gained 0.4% while the Small-Cap 600 gained 0.3%.

  • Real estate equities were mixed today - and lagged on the week - as the broad-based Equity REIT Indexes finished lower by 0.1% with 12-of-19 property sectors in negative territory.

  • Bankrupt mall REIT CBL Properties reported Q4 results, noting that its FFO per share plunged 61.4% for full-year 2020 while its same-store NOI dipped 21.5%. There were mild signs of improvement in early 2021.

  • Two satellites from OneWeb and SpaceX's Starlink nearly collided, which experts say could have been a major issue for orbital satellites. Cell Tower REITs face potential disruption - perhaps on the positive side - from this growing network of Low Earth Orbit ("LEO") satellites.

Real Estate Daily Recap

U.S. equity markets finished broadly higher Friday ahead of the start of Q1 earnings season next week despite PPI inflation data this morning showing a higher-than-expected rise in producer prices. Ending the week with gains of 2.7%, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished higher by another 0.7% today. Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) and Small-Cap 600 (SLY) indexes gained 0.4% and 0.3% today, respectively. Real estate equities were mixed today - but lagged on the week - as the broad-based Equity REIT ETFs (VNQ) finished lower by 0.1% with 12-of-19 property sectors in negative territory while the Mortgage REIT ETFs (REM) finished lower by 0.3%.

The hotter-than-expected PPI report had a relatively muted effect on inflation expectations and interest rates today as the 10-Year Treasury Yield finished higher by 3 basis points but ended the week well below its prior week close. Homebuilders and the broader Hoya Capital Housing Index rallied today ahead of a busy week of housing data next week. We'll publish a full analysis and commentary of this week's developments in the real estate industry, as well as an analysis of the busy week of economic data in our Real Estate Weekly Outlook report on Saturday morning.

The BLS reported that U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March as the combination of economic reopenings, ongoing supply chain issues, and the year-over-year "base effects" resulted in the largest annual gain in nearly 10 years on the headline PPI Index. Core PPI rose by 0.9% last month, which pushed its year-over-year rise to 3.5%. Longer-term inflation expectations have trended sideways over the last month as market participants are split on whether the expected jump in inflation metrics throughout this Spring will be sustained or are merely transitory effects of COVID-related disruptions to supply chains and work schedules.

Commercial Equity REITs

Malls: Bankrupt mall REIT CBL Properties (OTCPK:CBLAQ) was roughly unchanged after reporting Q4 results today. Roughly consistent with expectations and the results of other lower-productivity mall REITs, CBL reported that its FFO per share plunged 61.4% for full-year 2020 while its same-store NOI dipped 21.5%. Portfolio occupancy at the end of Q4 was 87.5%, representing a 70-basis point improvement from the sequential quarter, but a 370-basis point decline compared with 91.2% as of the prior year-end. While higher-productive mall REITs like Simon Property (SPG) see stabilization in 2021, most other mall REITs face a potentially long and uncertain road to recovery.

Cell Tower: While not directly affecting the cell tower REITs, The Verge reported today that two satellites from OneWeb and SpaceX's (SPACE) Starlink (STRLK) triggered a red alert from the U.S. Space Force's 18th Space Control Squadron of a potential collision, forcing SpaceX to manually steer the satellite to avoid the collision. Cell Tower REITs face potential disruption (perhaps on the positive side) from a growing network of Low Earth Orbit ("LEO") satellites. SpaceX has about 1,370 Starlink satellites in orbit already, while OneWeb has launched 146 satellites so far, but critics have raised concern that a space collision could set off a cascading wave of space destruction.

Mortgage REITs

Per our Mortgage REIT Tracker available to The REIT Forum subscribers, residential mREITs finished lower by 0.5% today and ended the week lower by 0.5%. Commercial mREITs declined by 0.2% but ended the week higher by 0.5%. KKR Real Estate (KREF) announced the launch of a Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock at $25.00 per share which will trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “KREF PRA.”

REIT Preferreds & Bonds

Per the REIT Preferreds & Bond Tracker available to The REIT Forum subscribers, REIT Preferred stocks finished higher by 0.09% today, on average, and outperformed their respective common stock issues by an average of 0.60%. So far in 2021, REIT Preferred stocks are higher by 6.70% on a price-return basis and the average REIT preferred currently pays a dividend yield of 6.29% and trades at a slight discount to par value.

To Continue Reading, Click Here To Visit Seeking Alpha!


Join our Mailing List on our Website

The REIT Forum is now the exclusive home to Hoya Capital premium research. Visit our website and join our email list for quick access to our real estate research library: HoyaCapital.com where we have links all of our real estate sector reports and daily recaps. You can also follow our real-time commentary on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Disclosure: A complete list of holdings and Real Estate and Housing Index definitions and holdings are available at HoyaCapital.com. Hoya Capital Real Estate advises an Exchange Traded Fund listed on the NYSE. Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index.

Additional Disclosure: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.

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Hoya Capital Real Estate ("Hoya Capital") is an SEC-registered investment advisory firm that provides investment management services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions, focusing on portfolio and index management of publicly traded securities in the real estate industry. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this website or commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Nothing on this site nor any published commentary by Hoya Capital is intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and should not be considered a complete discussion of all factors and risks. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. Loss of principal is possible. Investments in companies involved in the real estate and housing industries involve unique risks, as do investments in ETFs, mutual funds, and other securities. Hoya Capital has no business relationship with any company discussed/mentioned. Hoya Capital never receives compensation from any company discussed/mentioned. Hoya Capital, its affiliate, and/or its clients and/or its employees may hold positions in securities or funds discussed on this website and our published commentary. A complete list of holdings and other important disclosures and definitions are available by clicking the links below.

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