Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Industrial REITs: What Trade War?


Industrial REITs remain the standouts of the REIT sector, but performance in 2018 has been weighed down by continued fears of the trade war and its impact on supply chains. The underlying impact of trade concerns on industrial fundamentals, however, has been negligible so far. Industrial REITs reported strong third quarter results that generally topped expectations.


Demand growth is set to outpace supply yet again in 2018. The “need for speed” among consumers and businesses has resulted in intense competition for well-located logistics distribution centers. Prologis painted an optimistic outlook for 2019, particularly in their European markets. With no vacancy and a full development pipeline, however, same-store NOI growth is likely peaking in the US. Valuations remain elevated as the sector is priced for a peaceful trade resolution. Lingering trade uncertainty would be expected to eventually weaken tenant leasing demand.

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