Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

Keepin' It Real 

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Daily Recap: Stocks Lower | Weak Manufacturing | Strong Income Growth

After closing at record-highs yesterday following the Fed's third rate cut of 2019, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) declined by 0.3% on the day as investors digested a flurry of mixed economic data, earnings reports, and trade commentary. The 10-Year Treasury Yield (IEF) ticked lower by 10 basis points on the day, closing at 1.69%, as PCE inflation data come in cooler-than-expected and Chicago PMI slid to nearly four-year lows.


Personal income and spending data, however, came in better-than-expected with real personal incomes rising 3.5% year-over-year, matching the strongest rate since August 2018. Despite the decline in yields, real estate equities were mixed on the day as the broad-based REIT ETF (VNQ) ended the day lower by 0.1%, led to the upside by the manufactured housing, single-family rental, and storage REIT sectors while the timber, shopping center, and data center sectors lagged. 

The Hoya Capital Housing Index, the benchmark that tracks the performance of the US housing industry, finished the day lower by 0.5% as modest strength from the residential REIT and real estate insurance sector was offset by weakness in the homebuilding and home furnishings sector. The 58% surge in new home orders wasn't enough for high-flying homebuilder MDC Holdings (MDC), which traded off by more than 11% on the day.

Apartment REIT Mid-America (MAA) and mattress manufacturer Tempur Sealy (TPX) were among the stronger-performers on the day after strong earnings reports yesterday afternoon and this morning, respectively. Toll Brothers(TOL), RE/Max (RMAX), Camden (CPT), and AIMCO (AIV) all reported earnings this afternoon after the bell. 

As discussed in our Weekly Outlook, the "data dump" of economic data concludes tomorrow with a look at October's nonfarm payrolls report, as well as construction spending data.

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