Keepin' It Real 

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Healthcare REITs: 'Retirement Crisis' Fears Overblown

  • The early tremors of the long-awaited demographic-driven demand boom are finally beginning to appear for the sputtering healthcare REIT sector. The 2020s look promising after a disappointing decade.

  • The 'Aging Boomer' investment thesis has been no secret to developers. The healthcare real estate industry - especially senior housing REITs – continues to deal with significant oversupply issues.

  • Senior housing REITs suffered a setback with disappointing 3Q19 earnings, but 2019 still appears to have been the bottom of a half-decade-long stretch of deteriorating rent growth and occupancy levels.

  • Skilled Nursing and Hospital REITs remain troubled by operator struggles and policy uncertainty, issues unlikely to abate in 2020. The demographic tailwinds won't come until the 2030s for these sub-sectors.

  • Fears of a "retirement crisis" are overblown due in large part to rising home values over the past decade. Americans - mostly Boomers - have built up $10 trillion in additional home equity over the last decade.

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