Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

Keepin' It Real 

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Housing Sector Leads Stocks To Record Week

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  • Led by strength in the US housing sector, it was another record week for US equities as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow each climbed to new record highs.

  • Homebuilders jumped nearly 4% on the week, pushing their YTD gains back above 30%. Boosted by lower mortgage rates, forward-looking metrics indicate that the housing market is heating up again.

  • Confirming anecdotal evidence and commentary from homebuilders, JOLTs data suggests that the construction industry is having an increasingly difficult time sourcing skilled labor, a continuing headwind for the industry.

  • REITs traded sideways on the week with residential REITs leading the way after inflation data showed that rents are climbing at the fastest rate since 2017.

  • Outside of rising housing costs, inflation data remains benign. After months of cooling, CPI data was slightly warmer than expected due largely to an acceleration in shelter inflation.

After rallying more than 2.5% last week, the broad-based REIT ETFs (VNQ and IYR) traded sideways on the week, ending the week lower by 0.1%. Somewhat remarkably, it was just the 7th down-week for REITs out 28 weeks so far in 2019, highlighting the consistent strength exhibited by the REIT sector this year. The residential REIT sectors led the way, with the student housing, single-family rental, and storage REIT sectors each climbing more than 1.5%. The industrial, hotel, and timber REIT sectors were the relative laggards on the week. After dipping below 2% earlier this month, the 10-year yield (IEF) has climbed in each of the past two weeks, ending the week higher by 6 basis points as oil prices surged another 5% on the week as the roller-coaster ride for commodity investors this year continues.

For an in-depth analysis of all real estate sectors, be sure to check out all of our quarterly reports: Homebuilders, Apartments, Student Housing, Single-Family Rentals, Manufactured Housing, Cell Towers, Healthcare, Industrial, Data Center, Malls, Net Lease, Apartments, Shopping Centers, Hotels, Office,Storage, Timber, and Real Estate Crowdfunding.

Disclosure: An investor cannot invest directly in an index and index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses or taxes. The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. We consider the information in this presentation to be accurate, but we do not represent that it is complete. It should not be relied upon as the sole source of suitability for investment. Please consult with your investment, tax or legal adviser regarding your individual circumstances before investing. Visit our website for a complete definition of all indexes cited in this report. Investing involves risk and loss of principal is possible.

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Hoya Capital Real Estate ("Hoya Capital") is an SEC-registered investment advisory firm that provides investment management services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions, focusing on portfolio and index management of publicly traded securities in the real estate industry. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this website or commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Nothing on this site nor any published commentary by Hoya Capital is intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and should not be considered a complete discussion of all factors and risks. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. Loss of principal is possible. Investments in companies involved in the real estate and housing industries involve unique risks, as do investments in ETFs, mutual funds, and other securities. Hoya Capital has no business relationship with any company discussed/mentioned. Hoya Capital never receives compensation from any company discussed/mentioned. Hoya Capital, its affiliate, and/or its clients and/or its employees may hold positions in securities or funds discussed on this website and our published commentary. A complete list of holdings and other important disclosures and definitions are available by clicking the links below.

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