Logistics Rents Surge • Netflix Crash • REIT Earnings
U.S. equity markets finished mostly-higher Wednesday while bonds finally caught a bid as corporate earnings season kicked into high gear with a notable miss from streaming media pioneer Netflix.
Climbing back into positive territory for the week, the S&P 500 finished roughly flat today but the Mid-Cap 400 advanced 0.9% and the Small-Cap 600 gained 0.7%.
Real estate equities were broadly higher for a second straight day amid a strong start to earnings season as the Equity REIT Index advanced 2.0% with 18-of-19 property sectors in positive-territory.
Industrial REIT Rexford (REXR) rallied more than 6% today after reporting strong results and raising its full-year 2022 outlook across all metrics. REXR recorded incredible cash leasing spreads of over 50% amid insatiable demand for logistics space.
Existing Home Sales moderated in March amid a historic surge in mortgage rates, but housing inventory levels remain near historic lows with just 2.0 months of supply, which continues to keep upward pressure on prices.
Income Builder Daily Recap
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U.S. equity markets finished mostly-higher Wednesday while bonds finally caught a bid as corporate earnings season kicked into high gear with a notable miss from streaming media pioneer Netflix. Climbing back into positive territory for the week, the S&P 500 finished roughly flat today but the Mid-Cap 400 advanced 0.9% and the Small-Cap 600 gained 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, however, dipped 1.5% amid a 35% plunge from Netflix (NFLX). Real estate equities were broadly higher for a second straight day amid a strong start to earnings season as the Equity REIT Index advanced 2.0% with 18-of-19 property sectors in positive territory while Mortgage REITs rebounded with gains of 2.0% today.
Mortgage rates continued to climb in the latest weekly survey from the MBA with the 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage climbing to 5.20% - the highest since 2010 - and a full 2 percentage points higher than a year ago. Amid the surge in rates, home sales activity in early 2022 has cooled as Existing Home Sales fell in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million, which was roughly in line with consensus estimates. Sales were down 2.7% from the prior month and 4.5% from a year ago. Housing inventory levels remain near historic lows with just 2.0 months of supply in March, however, which continues to keep upward pressure on prices, which rose 15% from a year ago. Properties were on the market for just 18 days in February, on average, and 84% percent of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.
Real Estate Daily Recap
Industrial: Rexford (REXR) - which concentrates exclusively on the Southern California market - rallied more than 5% today after reporting strong results and raising its full-year 2022 outlook across all metrics. REXR now sees FFO growth of 13.4% - a substantial 430 basis point increase from its prior outlook provided just two months ago. As with Prologis' (PLD) report yesterday, the incredible surge in market rents was the highlight as REXR recorded releasing spreads of 71% and 57%, on a GAAP and cash basis, respectively, and yet was still able to end the quarter with record-high occupancy at 99.3%. REXR now sees 2022 same-property portfolio cash NOI growth of 6.75%-7.75%, up from its prior range of 6.0%-7.0%. We'll hear results from First Industrial (FR) this afternoon.
Yesterday, we published our Real Estate Earnings Preview on the Income Builder Marketplace which discussed the major themes and metrics we'll be watching across each of the real estate property sectors this earnings season. Real estate earnings season kicks off this week with reports from nine equity REITs and one homebuilder - Tri Pointe (TPH). This afternoon, we'll results hear from a pair of office REITs Brandywine (BDN) and SL Green (SLG), along with cell tower REIT Crown Castle (CCI). Net lease REITs Alpine Income (PINE) and Safehold (SAFE) will round out the week on Thursday. We'll have real-time coverage for Income Builder members throughout earnings season.
Mortgage REIT Daily Recap
Per the REIT Rankings Tracker available to Income Builder subscribers, mREITs rebounded today as commercial mREITs advanced 1.7% while residential mREITs gained 1.4% Franklin BSP Realty (FBRT) slipped 2% after it announced that it will convert all of its unlisted Series F Convertible Preferred Stock on a one-for-one basis into an equal amount of shares of the Company’s common stock on April 19, 2022. Mortgage REIT earnings season officially kicks off next Monday with results from KKR Real Estate (KREF) and Apollo Commercial (ARI).
REIT Preferreds & Capital Raising
Per the Income Builder Preferred Tracker available to Income Builder subscribers, the Hoya Capital REIT Preferred Index finished lower by 0.05% today. REIT Preferreds ended 2021 with price returns of roughly 8.0% and total returns of roughly 14%. There are now 186 REIT-issued exchange-listed preferred and debt securities with an average current yield of 6.57%.
Economic Data This Week
The busy week of economic data continues with Jobless Claims data on Thursday and PMI data on Friday. We'll publish a full analysis and commentary of this week's developments in the real estate industry, as well as an analysis of the busy week of economic data in our Real Estate Weekly Outlook published this weekend.
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Disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate advises two Exchange-Traded Funds listed on the NYSE. In addition to any long positions listed below, Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index and in the Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield Index. Index definitions and a complete list of holdings are available on our website.
Additional Disclosure: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.