Keepin' It Real  

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Mall REITs: Shop Till You Drop

Updated: Sep 10, 2020

  • From bad to worse. Entering 2020 on already unstable footing following a tsunami of store closings over the past half-decade, mall REITs have been punished by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

  • Mall REITs have plunged nearly 50% so far in 2020. Absent a miracle, mall REITs are likely to underperform the REIT average for the fifth straight year in 2020.

  • Rent collection averaged less than 50% in the second quarter. Same-store NOI dipped roughly 30% in Q2, while FFO per share has plunged a mind-numbing 45% through the first half of 2020.

  • Shop till you drop? Simon Property is on a shopping spree, as the mall REIT continues to make investments into distressed retail brands that will keep many storefronts open, at least for now.

  • The forthcoming post-pandemic "suburban revival" offers a glimmer of hope for deep value speculative investors, as does Amazon's rumored interest in converting vacated department store space into distribution centers.

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