Keepin' It Real 

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Mortgage REITs: 3 Trends To Watch This Earnings Season

  • Mortgage REITs have taken center-stage over the last two months - and for the wrong reasons - amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. mREITs plunged nearly 70% in March before recovering.

  • Extreme and unprecedented levels of interest rate volatility triggered a wave of margin calls and a self-reinforcing cycle of "forced selling" which pushed the mREIT sector to the absolute brink.

  • Mortgage REIT earnings season kicks-off this week. All 41 mREITs will report results over the next three weeks in what will surely be the most consequential and newsworthy earnings season.

  • Interim updates from residential mortgage REITs indicated that the permanent damage to book value was not as devastating as once feared for the majority of mREITs.

  • While mREITs are not out of the woods yet, we believe that the residential mortgage market remains on firm footing amid a positive fundamental backdrop for the U.S. housing markets over the next decade.

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