Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Real Estate Weekly: REIT Rally Resumes As Earnings Season Heats Up

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  • Following the worst week of the year for REITs, the sector bounced-back on a busy week of economic data. REITs have climbed in fourteen of the seventeen weeks of 2019.

  • GDP data smashed through estimates in the first quarter, silencing concerns that economic growth may be stalling out following the 2018 reacceleration. A true “Goldilocks” report, inflation pressures remained muted.

  • GDP growth is even more impressive considering the recent drag from residential fixed investment and non-residential construction. A tailwind for REITs, supply growth has cooled even as demand remains robust.

  • New Home Sales topped estimates, climbing to a sixteen-month high as lower mortgage rates are translating into stronger demand. Homebuilder earnings, however, have been mixed so far this quarter.

  • Household formations are growing at the strongest rate since 1985, powered by rising wages and solid job growth. More households are renting, however, as the homeownership rate stalled-out in Q1.


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