Keepin' It Real  

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

apartment REITs
homebuilders ETFs
single family rental REITs
manufactured housing REITs
student housing REITs
data center REITs
Cell tower REITs
net lease REITs
industrial REITs
storage REITs
office REITs
mall REITs
REIT Preferreds and Bonds
hotel REITs
Timber REITs
healthcare REITs
REIT ETFs
Billboard REITs
shopping center REIT
High-Yield Real Estate ETFs
Real Estate CEFs
Casino REITs
cannabis REITs
prison REITs
mortgage REITs
real estate crowdfunding
REIT Portfolio Strategy
REITs Taxes
1/1
Housing100logo.png
ETF express.png
  • Alex Pettee, CFA

REIT Earnings Begin • Logistics Boom • Mortgage Tech

Summary

  • U.S. equity markets retreated from record-highs Monday - dragged down by pressure on large-cap technology stocks - ahead of a jam-packed week of corporate earnings reports and economic data.

  • Coming off gains of 1.4% last week, the S&P 500 finished lower by 0.5% today while the Mid-Cap 400 declined 0.5% and the Small-Cap 600 dipped 1.2%.

  • Real estate equities were the leaders today as REIT earnings season kicked off. The broad-based Equity REIT Index finished higher by 0.2% today with 11-of-19 property sectors in positive territory.

  • Prologis (PLD) kicked off REIT earnings season this morning with another impressive "beat and raise" quarter. The logistics giant boosted its 2021 guidance across all metrics.

  • Mortgage REIT Redwood Trust (RWT) announced today that it has invested in Liquid Mortgage, a startup that uses blockchain technology to make the mortgage ecosystem more efficient.

Real Estate Daily Recap

U.S. equity markets retreated from record-highs Monday - dragged down by pressure on large-cap technology stocks - ahead of a jam-packed week of corporate earnings reports and economic data. Coming off gains of 1.4% last week, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished lower by 0.5% today while the Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) declined 0.5% and the Small-Cap 600 (SLY) dipped 1.2%. Real estate equities were the leaders today as REIT earnings season kicked. The broad-based Equity REIT ETFs (VNQ) finished higher by 0.2% today with 11-of-19 property sectors in positive territory while the Mortgage REIT ETFs (REM) declined by 1.4%.

As discussed in our Real Estate Weekly Outlook, U.S. equity markets are coming off a "Goldilocks" week as long-term interest rates pulled back despite a stellar slate of economic data and corporate earnings reports. Nine of the eleven GICS equity sectors finished lower on the day, dragged to the downside by the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) sectors. Homebuilders and the broader Hoya Capital Housing Index pulled back today following a strong week ahead of another busy week of housing data in the week ahead with the two major home sales reports.

On Thursday, we'll see Existing Home Sales data which is expected to show that the sales rate was roughly even with last month as the mere lack of available homes to sell has emerged as a near-term constraint on further upside. On Friday, we'll see New Home Sales data which is expected to show a solid jump in March from the weather-affected February data, consistent with the trends observed this week with Housing Starts data. We'll also be watching the weekly MBA Mortgage data on Wednesday, Jobless Claims data on Thursday, and PMI data on Friday.


Commercial Equity REITs

Just a few weeks after the final REITs reported Q4 earnings results, we've already begun Q1 real estate earnings season with results this morning from Prologis (PLD) and we'll hear results from American Campus (ACC) and Equity Lifestyle (ELS) this afternoon. Gear up for a frenetic month of newsflow as over the next four weeks, we'll hear results from more than 175 equity REITs, 40 equity REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies.


Industrial: On that point, Prologis (PLD) kicked off REIT earnings season this morning with another impressive "beat and raise" quarter. The logistics giant boosted its 2021 guidance across all metrics and CEO Hamid Moghadam commented that demand is as "strong as I have seen in my career." PLD now sees its cash same-store NOI rising 4.5%-5.0% during 2021, up from 3.50%-4.50% previously. Net effective rents (releasing spreads) surged 27.0% in Q1, driven by a 32.0% jump in rents in the U.S. market. This afternoon, we'll publish Industrial REITs: Out of Stock on The REIT Forum which will explain why demand for industrial real estate space is insatiable as businesses scramble to invest in logistics resiliency.


Office: Highwoods Properties (HIW) announced today that it will acquire a portfolio of office properties from diversified REIT Preferred Apartment Communities (APTS) for $769M including improvements and transaction cost. The portfolio is comprised of four Class A office assets in Charlotte and Raleigh and one mixed-use redevelopment site in Atlanta, along with two non-core assets. Highwoods plans to fund the acquisition by accelerating the sales of existing non-core assets and the acquisition is scheduled to close during Q3'21. In our Weekly Outlook, we explained how recovering valuations and ample access to capital has reignited the "animal spirits" in REIT world.

Malls: Pennsylvania REIT (PEI) - which emerged after a month-long stint in Chapter 11 bankruptcy last December - provided an update in which it noted that its liquidity profile has improved as rent collection rates and foot traffic at its properties have increased. PREIT commented that it received 119% of billed rents in Q1, up from 112% in Q4 2020 and 99% in Q3. Last week, half of its comparable properties posted traffic exceeding the same period in 2019. The forthcoming post-pandemic "suburban revival" offers a glimmer of hope for the enclosed mall format, but investors should be wary of jumping into a perennial "value trap" until fundamentals clearly stabilize.

Mortgage REITs

Per our Mortgage REIT Tracker available to The REIT Forum subscribers, residential mREITs finished lower by 1.6% today following a decline of 0.4% last week. Commercial mREITs were lower by 1.5% today following last week's gains of 2.6%. The "animal spirits" are alive in the mREIT world as well as Redwood Trust (RWT) announced today that it has invested in Liquid Mortgage, a startup that uses blockchain technology to make the mortgage ecosystem more efficient. The two companies expect such process improvements to create significant cost savings throughout the mortgage chain that would result in lower borrowing costs for consumers.

REIT Preferreds & Bonds

Per the REIT Preferreds & Bond Tracker available to The REIT Forum subscribers, REIT Preferred stocks finished higher by 0.06% today, on average, and outperformed their respective common stock issues by an average of 0.01%. In the bond markets, American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) announced that it closed on a $1.25B, sustainability-linked revolving credit facility with an initial maturity date in April 2025, up from its existing $800M facility, giving it expanded borrowing capacity at a more favorable pricing grid to support its growth initiatives. So far in 2021, REIT Preferred stocks are higher by 6.41% on a price-return basis and the average REIT preferred currently pays a dividend yield of 6.30% and trades at a slight discount to par value.

To Continue Reading, Click Here To Visit Seeking Alpha!


Join our Mailing List on our Website

The REIT Forum is now the exclusive home to Hoya Capital premium research. Visit our website and join our email list for quick access to our real estate research library: HoyaCapital.com where we have links all of our real estate sector reports and daily recaps. You can also follow our real-time commentary on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Disclosure: A complete list of holdings and Real Estate and Housing Index definitions and holdings are available at HoyaCapital.com. Hoya Capital Real Estate advises an Exchange Traded Fund listed on the NYSE. Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index.

Additional Disclosure: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.

REIT Forum HOYA AD.png