Keepin' It Real 

Economics, Housing, & Commercial Real Estate Analysis

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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Timber REITs: Literally On Fire

  • One of the best-performing REIT sectors this year, Timber REITs have nearly doubled since their mid-pandemic lows in March, reignited by a rejuvenation in the suddenly red-hot U.S. housing market.

  • Housing has proven to be the "ultimate essential service." Households have exhibited a propensity to prioritize housing-related payments and investments in home improvement and living situation upgrades amid the pandemic.

  • Lumber prices have soared to record-highs from the combination of insatiable demand and reduced supply resulting from pandemic-related production shutdowns and forest fires raging in the Pacific Northwest.

  • Timber REITs were caught off-guard by the velocity of the rebound in lumber demand from single-family homebuilding and remodeling activity and have struggled to meet customer demand.

  • Long-term fundamentals look strong for the Timber REIT and broader housing sectors, powered by demographic trends that suggest a revival of the suburbs and single-family housing in the 2020s.

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