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  • Alex Pettee, CFA

Shopping Center REITs: Back On Sale

  • Unlike their mall REIT peers, Shopping Center REITs entered 2022 with fundamentals that are as strong- or possibly even stronger- than before the pandemic with a full recovery now complete.

  • Occupancy rate trends and leasing spreads have been especially impressive with rents rising by double-digit rates in Q4, indicating clear signs of pricing power for the first time since the mid-2010s.

  • Two steps forward, one back. Soaring gas prices from the Russia/Ukraine conflict have tempered the post-pandemic optimism, but absent an outright recession, the positive fundamental trajectory should continue into 2023.

  • Big-box retailers and grocery stores have been surprising "success stories" of the pandemic era. Large-format retailers have increasingly utilized their brick-and-mortar properties as hybrid "distribution centers" in last-mile delivery networks.

  • Shopping Center REIT valuations were becoming rich in late-2021, but the combination of Omicron and the Russia conflict have pulled valuations of several higher-quality REITs back toward "bargain" territory.

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